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New listings data falls for third week in a row 

Housing Wire

New listings data has been moving lower over the last few weeks. But, we need to see more growth in new listings data just to grow from 2023 levels. 2023 new listings data was the lowest ever on record, so it’s already a low bar. We need to crack this uptrend to see mortgage rates move lower and stay lower.

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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

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Why higher rates aren’t crashing home prices

Housing Wire

The housing bubble boys are a crew that from 2012 to 2019 screamed housing crash every year. In 2022 it was all about finding a point in time when I thought mortgage rates would fall, which was key to understanding how the purchase application data would react to lower mortgage rates. Even the IMF was begging the U.S.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates. Post-2012, whenever mortgage rates rise, existing home sales always trend below 5 million. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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Is housing inventory growth really slowing down?

Housing Wire

One of the most important housing market stories in recent weeks has been the decline in new listings , which has slowed the growth rate of total inventory. Redfin : Realtor.com : Altos Research : Clearly, we are seeing a slowdown in new listings as the data has been negative now for months. What does this mean?

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