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Buyers are overpaying, but are there signs of a bubble?

Housing Wire

Home prices have skyrocketed in the past year, and data from Redfin backs up what buyers, sellers, and agents have known for months. Mortgage rates have also jumped to north of 3% ; at its current pace, the Mortgage Bankers Association is forecasting rates will reach nearly 3.5% With the new rules of Non-QM 2.0

Buyers 545
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

Mortgage 513
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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

Inventory 416
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates. Post-2012, whenever mortgage rates rise, existing home sales always trend below 5 million. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

. “The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. ” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well.

Inventory 505
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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory falls

Housing Wire

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. We had a lot of drama over the week between Federal Reserve meetings and banking stress, and mortgage rates and purchase applications both fell.

Inventory 482