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Spring housing market gets more inventory

Housing Wire

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. We have now seen it for two weeks as inventory grew by 13,247.

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Why is housing inventory growing with higher mortgage rates?

Housing Wire

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.

Inventory 532
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What will lower mortgage rates do to spring housing inventory?

Housing Wire

However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Inventory 528
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Second-home mortgage market slumped in 2023: Redfin

Housing Wire

In 2023, home purchases slowed across the board due to low levels of inventory, high mortgage rates and soaring home prices. Nationwide, 90,772 mortgages for second homes were originated in 2023, down 40% from a year earlier and down 65% from the height of the post-pandemic housing boom in 2021, according to a new report from Redfin.

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How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024?

Housing Wire

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year. This is due to demand rising late in one year, pushing through the early part of the next year and preventing inventory growth.

Inventory 503
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Housing inventory growth slows to a halt

Housing Wire

Total housing inventory growth has been slow in 2023, but with rising mortgage rates over the last few months, inventory has grown a bit faster than average. The question now is: Have we hit the seasonal peak in inventory for 2023? We might have reached the peak in inventory this week.

Inventory 456
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Tight credit, high rates and low inventory add to buyers’ affordability struggles 

Housing Wire

Tightening credit availability, elevated rates, inventory shortages and strengthening home prices are adding to affordability challenges, the report notes. One key contributor to the affordability challenges is dwindling inventory nationwide. Since the start of 2023, inventory has deteriorated in 95% of major markets, the report notes.

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