Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

I can’t see the 10-year yield below 3.37% unless the labor market breaks — meaning jobless claims over 323,000 on the four-week moving average. That means I can’t see mortgage rates going below 6%, especially with the spreads being bad, until the labor market or the economy gets weaker. I know it’s not a lot, but growth is growth.

Housing Market 457

Housing Market Inventory New Listings Marketing 457

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. New listing data was trending at all-time lows in 2021 abd 2022 and now it’s creating a new all-time low trend in 2023.

Inventory 483

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 483

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes. The weekly active listing data had a rare week-to-week decline. The other big story in housing has been that new listing data has been trending at the lowest levels recorded in history for 12 months. If we start from Nov.

Inventory 468

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 468

Housing Wire

MAY 15, 2024

housing market saw dramatic changes in affordability as mortgage rates skyrocketed 500 basis points. After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, new listings volume fell precipitously. By Q1 2015, more than 60% of American homeowners with mortgages had rates locked in under 5%.

Mortgage 357

Mortgage New Listings Inventory Sellers 357

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory fell 5,383 last week, and new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023.

Inventory 532

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 532

Housing Wire

JULY 30, 2023

Last week inventory growth dropped and new listing data declined again. Two weeks ago we had some good movement with active listings growing almost 9,000 , but last week that fell to just 4,988, and new listings data also fell. Instead, new listings data had a small decline last week.

Housing Market 360

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 360

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless. We saw a slight decline in new listings data week to week. We saw a slight decline in new listings data week to week. For now, I will chalk this up to the seasonal choppiness we sometimes see with inventory data.

Inventory 425

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 425

Housing Wire

JUNE 11, 2023

inventory saga: after mortgage rates spiked above 6% in 2022, that jump-started the unhealthy reality of new listing data trending negative year over year. So much for the 2021 grifting premise that once mortgage rates rise, many Americans will list to sell and get out! Of course, we have a third story in this U.S.

Inventory 496

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 496

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2023

The housing market faced some serious obstacles last week as the 10-year yield broke over 4%, mortgage rates rose to over 7%, purchase apps fell again and we are still trying to find the elusive seasonal bottom for housing inventory. My 2023 inventory forecast needs a lot of help, as new listing data isn’t growing at all still.

Inventory 453

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 453

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

The last four weeks of new listings data have been the most volatile since mortgage rates breached 6% in 2022. One week, we had the biggest decline in new listings data all year, which might indicate Americans are giving up on listing their homes. What’s going on with housing inventory ? 18: 60,295 Aug.

Inventory 473

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 473

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. We created this weekly tracker at the end of 2022 to give people a live weekly outlook on everything that drives the housing market and which factors to follow.

Inventory 502

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 502

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Imagine a housing market with just 6% mortgage rates or lower — it would be growing like what we see in the new home sales market. The growth isn’t just in active inventory but also new listings. When mortgage rates fall, demand picks up.

Mortgage 508

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 508

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. Active inventory fell 1,109, and new listing data made a lovely comeback week to week but was still noticeably down year over year. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

Inventory 440

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 440

Housing Wire

JUNE 25, 2023

However, the real positive story here is that even with new listing data trending at an all-time low, we are getting the growth in active listings we traditionally see in the spring and summer. In addition, new listing data turned negative year over year after the second half of 2022.

Inventory 404

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 404

Housing Wire

JULY 23, 2023

The slow rise of housing inventory this year has made the existing home sales market savagely unhealthy again. However, last year was very abnormal: We had the biggest one-year sales crash ever, working from the lowest active listings data in March 2022. economy, but for 2023 I put more weight into the labor market data.

Inventory 366

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 366

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2024

Of course, what is different this year versus last year is that new listing data is growing yearly instead of trending at the lowest levels recorded in history. Last year, when mortgage rates headed toward 8% , we saw no negative hit to the latest listings data, meaning it didn’t take a new leg lower.

Inventory 484

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Finance 484

Housing Wire

APRIL 3, 2023

Last week was relatively calm for the housing market after the fiasco of the banking crisis. Active inventory fell by 3,141, and new listing data fell again and is still trending at all-time lows. The banking crisis has stressed the mortgage backed securities market , pushing rates higher than usual.

Inventory 479

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 479

Housing Wire

APRIL 6, 2024

Weekly housing inventory data — both active inventory and new listings — are prone to one-week moves that deviate from a trend, especially if people are going Easter egg hunting. So, the fact that active inventory and new listings data fell last week isn’t a big deal. However, for now, this is a plus for the U.S.

Inventory 443

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 443

Housing Wire

JULY 16, 2023

The labor market remains healthy as long as jobless claims trend below 323,000 on the four-week moving average. In a normal market, mortgage rates would easily be under 6% with the 10-year yield where it is. Weekly housing inventory We had mild inventory growth last week and new listing data is trending at the lowest levels ever.

Housing Market 369

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 369

Housing Wire

MARCH 30, 2024

The best housing story in 2024 is that inventory is growing — both active inventory and new listings. Still, new listing data is a positive story. Still, new listing data is a positive story. However, the markets were closed Friday, so we have to wait and see how trading goes on Monday.

Inventory 429

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Housing Market 429

Housing Wire

JULY 2, 2023

We have often discussed that the housing market dynamics changed starting Nov. The other big story with housing inventory is that new listing data has been trending negative year over year since the end of June 2022. We had new listings growth from 2021 to 2022, but that’s not the case this year.

Inventory 449

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 449

Housing Wire

MAY 11, 2024

Mortgage rates and the bond market have fallen a bit recently and the spreads between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rate have improved over last year’s levels. To see mortgage rates drop and stay lower, the bond market needs to know the labor market is getting softer. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates.

Mortgage 402

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 402

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

On a positive note, however, the days on the market are no longer a teenager anymore: that metric grew from 18 days to 21 days. I cheer because the savagely unhealthy housing market theme I talked about back in February of this year was the same premise of the housing reset talking point the Federal Reserve uses. months to 3.3

Inventory 463

Inventory Marketing Housing Market New Listings 463

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

We created the weekly Housing Market Tracker because housing data has been so wild since 2020. The housing market madness persisted last week as inventory fell and higher mortgage rates took a bigger bite out of purchase application data. In a typical marketplace, the days on market are more than 30 days.

Housing Market 419

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 419

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

Naturally, some people thought home prices would crash in 2023 as many market players said prices always follow volume. What 2023 data has shown me is that even with mortgage rates heading toward 8%, new listings data didn’t take a new leg lower — it stayed remarkably consistent all year long.

Mortgage 527

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 527

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

We are approaching a critical technical level on the 10-year yield that can cause market drama for mortgage rates. However, the 10-year yield above 4.34% is not part of the 2024 forecast, and if that happens, look again for Fed members to try to talk the bond market down again if this escalates to a 5% 10-year yield and 8% mortgage rates.

Mortgage 521

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 521

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

In addition, jobless claims data had another solid print, showing that the labor market hasn’t broken yet, which led to more selling of the 10-year yield. On housing inventory , new listings data saw a small decline last week, but active listings grew at a healthy clip.

Mortgage 438

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 438

Housing Wire

MARCH 19, 2023

The housing market was crazy again last week. New listing data collapsed, but we are putting an asterisk on that data line for this week. This assumes the spreads are wide as the mortgage-back securities market is still very stressed. This bond market is screaming at the Fed to cut rates.

Housing Market 378

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 378

Housing Wire

MARCH 12, 2023

Last week was wild, and not just for the housing market. Weekly inventory fell by 6201 , and new listing data is down noticeably from last year, which was different than last week. This assumes the spreads are wide as the mortgage back securities market is still very stressed. Already, the future pricing of a.50%

Housing Market 370

Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 370

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers. You can see our debate on this topic here. We haven’t broken either yet.

Inventory 532

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 532

Housing Wire

JANUARY 6, 2024

This is why following the housing market tracker tied to the 10-year yield, mortgage rates, and purchase application data will be as critical as last year to tell you what’s going on in the housing market. Last year, It was great to see that new listing data didn’t take a new dive lower no matter how high mortgage rates got.

Inventory 541

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 541

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. Most home sellers are buyers, and we want the new listings data to show growth year over year since it appears that we have formed a bottom in 2023. However, seasonality tends to rule the day eventually.

Inventory 531

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 531

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. New listings data While new listings data isn’t growing in significant terms year over year — sorry, silver tsunami crowd — it is showing growth year over year. So far, so good in 2024.

Inventory 540

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 540

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 3, 2023

Mortgage rates did fall, purchase application data rose and new listings data came back to trend. Weekly active listings rose by only 5,654 Mortgage rates went from 7.37% and ended the week at 7.08% Purchase apps rose 2 % week to week Mortgage rates and the bond market The 10-year yield and mortgage rates were wild last week.

Mortgage 448

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Marketing 448

Housing Wire

JANUARY 28, 2024

20-27): Inventory fell from 472,852 to 466,391 The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194 The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898 For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 938,453 Last week, we saw active inventory fall slightly week to week. 19-26) : Inventory fell from 506,414 to 503,233 Same week last year (Jan.

Inventory 516

Inventory New Listings Mortgage Marketing 516

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

I said the 10-year yield would only break below 3.37% if the labor market breaks — this level is the “Gandalf line” I have used all year. One concern with higher mortgage rates was that more sellers — who are traditional buyers — would not list their homes. In Q3, the U.S. economy grew above 5%, and jobless claims headed lower.

Mortgage 542

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 542

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

Last week we saw a noticeable decline in new listings and active inventory was barely positive. New listing data is getting interesting: two weeks ago, we had a noticeable decline from the trend and then a weekly rebound. Does this mean housing inventory has begun its seasonal decline?

Inventory 474

Inventory New Listings Retail Mortgage 474