Housing Wire
APRIL 23, 2023
Can we now say that the housing market ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.
Housing Wire
DECEMBER 7, 2022
One issue that has created a waterfall dive in purchase application data and sales is that new listing data is declining faster than usual. Since the summer of 2020, I have believed the housing market could change in terms of cooling down, but it would require the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%.
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Housing Wire
MAY 8, 2024
This is what happened post 2010: The millennials started to buy homes in 2013 and they finance 90% of those homes. These years have seen the most enormous housing demographic patch ever recorded in history, with ages 28-35 being massive. So inventory slowly broke lower and lower as we came into the years 2020-2024.
Housing Wire
JUNE 9, 2023
I mean, it’s year 11 now of the housing bubble 2.0 In 2022, mortgage rates got as high as 7.37%, so the question was: how low do rates have to go for housing demand to get better? On June 16, 2022, I put the housing market into a recession , which is where housing demand, housing jobs, housing income and housing production all drop.
Housing Wire
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
However, the housing market did run into one problem in 2020. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. I knew housing would be OK as long as home prices only grew at 23% over five years — 4.6% We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.
Housing Wire
JANUARY 5, 2023
The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. From 2013 to 2022 I forecasted price growth every year.
Housing Wire
AUGUST 3, 2022
People thought the mortgage rate drama in 2013-2014 was a lot when rates went from 3.5% The question is, can lower mortgage rates save the housing market from its recent downtrend? We saw this in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. We see some of this in the active listing data as new listings are declining.
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