Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2023

How is today’s housing starts data , which beat expectations, good for mortgage rates ? What we see in this latest starts report is encouraging, as a record number of 5-units are still in construction and anything that gets finished is positive against inflation. Like most recessions, when demand falls, so does production.

Mortgage 501

Mortgage Construction Marketing Contracts 501

Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. We simply cannot finish homes in America promptly, and now that mortgage rates are over 5%, some buyers won’t be able to purchase a home.

Mortgage 457

Mortgage Construction Contracts Housing Market 457

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2022

However, the demand curve of what we have in housing too doesn’t resemble the speculation demand curve of what we saw from 2002-to 2005. So the type of boom and bust we would need to see to reflect bubble speculation demand isn’t in this market like we saw from 2002-to 2005. Have more questions for Logan?

Housing Market 418

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 418

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

Tuesday’s new home sales report missed expectations and had negative revisions, which isn’t surprising given this sector of our economy simply can’t handle higher mortgage rates. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction.

Construction 370

Construction Housing Market Sellers Marketing 370

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. For the builders, they have a new problem: they had homes under contract and then mortgage rates jumped in the biggest fashion ever recorded in history.

Contracts 542

Contracts Construction Supply Chain Marketing 542

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2022

The housing sector — especially real estate and mortgage — has seen significant layoffs , while the general economy will create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. Then we had the biggest mortgage rate shock in recent history and yet even with that, we will have over 5 million total home sales this year. Production falls. Home sales.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 545

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. Just to give you some perspective here, at the peak of 2005, we had about 2.24 months of homes they have under construction or have not even started yet. Now that mortgage rates have spiked up so much, the housing construction growth we have seen in single-family construction is done.

Construction 510

Construction Housing Market Marketing Business 510

Housing Wire

JULY 19, 2022

The smart thing to do is go with the builder sentiment trend until it reverses, and most likely, we will need to see lower mortgage rates for that to happen. From the National Association of Home Builders : Looking at the housing starts report, the numbers came in slightly better than anticipated, driven by multifamily construction.

Housing Market 513

Housing Market Marketing Construction Real Estate 513

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

9 up until the early part of February as mortgage rates fell from 7.37% to 5.99%. To combat higher mortgage rates, builders have been cutting prices and buying down rates to move product. If sales are working from an elevated number, like what we saw from 2003-2005, it’s a different subject altogether. When supply is 4.3

Inventory 441

Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 441

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. Credit stress was evident from 2005 to 2008. We have more housing starts under construction now than in recent history!

Inventory 505

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 505

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. Older Americans also have financial incentives attached to staying in their homes, since 54% of the baby boomer cohort own their homes free and clear without making monthly mortgage payments. years last year, up from 6.5 homeowner tenure by year using county records.

Property Taxes 453

Property Taxes Insurance Construction Inventory 453

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

NAR total active listings data going back to 1982 : This explains why the builders and new homes are doing better than the existing home sales market, which deals with higher mortgage rates and low active listings. Also, in the chart below, we can all agree it isn’t housing 2005 or housing 2008 with new home sales. When supply is 4.4-6.4

Construction 491

Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 491

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

Housing Market 404

Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 404

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. months, the builders will pause construction. When supply is over 6.5

Inventory 467

Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 467

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

Mortgage 457

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 457

Housing Wire

MAY 6, 2022

In addition, employment in the construction industry is now 21,000 jobs above its pre-pandemic level after the sector added 2,000 jobs. of its pre-pandemic level,” Mike Fratantoni, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s SVP and chief economist, said in a statement. had another strong month in April. recorded in February 2020.

Construction 352

Construction Transportation Real Estate Mortgage 352

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. We talked about this in March , and even last year, when I wrote about the problem with the housing construction boom premise. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

Construction 498

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 498

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

We had a period this summer when mortgage rates moved from 6.25% back down to 5% and some of the new home sales activity picked up. million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. When supply is 4.4

Construction 466

Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 466

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% 2021 was a strong year for construction.”. But while this is good news for new housing construction, homebuilders still have plenty of obstacles to overcome.

Construction 410

Construction Housing Market Inventory Development 410

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

However, demand has construction playing catch-up , as the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was just 278,000. Sales are increasingly being driven from homes not yet under construction. And more sales means more construction means more sales: A large share (38.5%, up from 28.5% This represents a supply of 3.3

Construction 519

Construction Development Mortgage Housing Market 519

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

The truth is that if mortgage rates fell below 5.875% and kept going lower, everyone’s housing predictions would need to be revised this year because the builders can sell their homes with lower mortgage rates. This is why construction workers haven’t been laid off while other jobs in the housing market have been.

Construction 488

Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2021

As we enter the second quarter of 2021, it’s time for the mortgage industry to reflect on the past 12 months and think about how to plan for the same period ahead. Low mortgage rates, driven by quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve helped fuel a boom in both mortgage refinancing and purchases, making 2020 the second-best year in U.S.

Development 414

Development Lending Mortgage Marketing 414

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. The builders will pull back on construction growth if new homes sales start to head lower.

Construction 389

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 389

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products. We didn’t have the credit stress issue from 2010-2023 like we did from 2005 through 2008. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 When supply is 4.3

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 539

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. As we can see in the chart below, it’s not like the new home sales market is booming at all; we aren’t anywhere near the top of sales in 2005 or in 2020. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. percent (±15.2

Inventory 470

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 470

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. This housing cycle is and will always be based on real demand, versus the credit boom we saw from 2002 to 2005. Slow and steady wins the race.

Housing Market 392

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 392

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2020

At its Annual event Wednesday, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni forecast that interest rates could rise in the year to come, but that they will remain near all-time lows. The chart below shows interest rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will end this year at about 3% and could hit around 3.3%

Mortgage 394

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 394

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 We are still in housing recession land as the builders still have a lot of new construction homes and haven’t started yet to build. When supply is 4.3 When supply is 4.4 months and above.

Construction 443

Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 443

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

That data shows how housing was still on pace to have another solid year before mortgage rates got over 5%. The housing world is much different at 5% plus mortgage rates versus the 3% mortgage world we had last year. They were simply doing what the marketplace allowed them to do with low inventory and low mortgage rates.

Construction 342

Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 342

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. When supply is 4.3

Construction 352

Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 352

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. Five months of the supply are homes in construction.

Inventory 447

Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 447

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. mortgage rates, so on the mortgage rate side of the equation, it’s never been better. Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. These households got sub-3.5%

Housing Market 528

Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 528

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

The new home sales market is doing well as it really benefits from lower mortgage rates. I have said for many years that we wouldn’t see total housing construction start a year at 1.5 I have said for many years that we wouldn’t see total housing construction start a year at 1.5 The median sales price is now 11.4%

Housing Market 542

Housing Market Marketing Construction Buyers 542

Housing Wire

JUNE 30, 2021

Pending home sales reached its highest mark for the month of May since 2005, up 8% from the previous month of April as low inventory continues driving buyers to snatch up available real estate. ” Ruben Gonzalez, Keller Williams chief economist, added that he is “optimistic” new home construction will pick up.

Supply Chain 414

Supply Chain Inventory Buyers Realtors 414

Housing Wire

JANUARY 26, 2022

months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. It is an embarrassment, but construction productivity — which has been terrible for decades — is now also dealing with shortages that delay finishing homes. When supply is 4.4 months, this is an OK market for the builders. When supply is 6.5 This is 11.9 percent (±20.3

Construction 420

Construction Marketing Mortgage Sellers 420

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

As you can see, the construction sector was barely positive; this is one area of the marketplace that should be losing jobs next year. The builders are now holding onto their labor due to the backlog of homes under construction. Traditionally, mortgage rates below 4% boost housing demand. At this point it’s all about timing.

Marketing 487

Marketing Construction Mortgage Housing Market 487

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

This problem is much different than the housing credit bubble of 2002-2005. Mortgage rates of 4%-5% weren’t doing the amount of demand destruction I thought they would. Mortgage rates closer to 6% for sure are driving bigger year-over-year decline data. From BLS : The downside of higher rates Housing construction will slow.

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 539