Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

This is the reason construction workers still have jobs, and that backlog needs to be finished; this is a positive outcome. The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. percent (±12.3

Housing Market 392

Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 392

Empire Appraisal Group

MARCH 14, 2024

Redfin: Boomers aging in place is ‘the driving force’ behind median homeowner tenure doubling since 2005 Source: [link] Over the past two decades, the median homeowner tenure has jumped from 6.5 In 2005, the median U.S. After climbing every year between 2005 and 2020, U.S. years to 11.9 homeowner tenure was 6.5

Property Taxes 78

Property Taxes Construction Housing Market Buyers 78

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 19, 2022

In June of this year, I raised the fifth recession red flag , putting the housing market in a traditional recession where sales, incomes, jobs, and production would be falling, which is happening now. The new home sales market gets hit harder by higher mortgage rates than the existing home market.

Mortgage 493

Mortgage Construction Inventory Housing Market 493

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2023

How is today’s housing starts data , which beat expectations, good for mortgage rates ? What we see in this latest starts report is encouraging, as a record number of 5-units are still in construction and anything that gets finished is positive against inflation. Like most recessions, when demand falls, so does production.

Mortgage 490

Mortgage Construction Marketing Contracts 490

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2023

We had some good news this week for the housing market : purchase application data is up , the builder’s confidence index rose to beat estimates, and the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have fallen. million until 2020-2024, when demand would finally warrant that type of construction. percent (±16.9 percent (±11.2

Mortgage 443

Mortgage Construction Marketing Housing Market 443

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. For the builders, they have a new problem: they had homes under contract and then mortgage rates jumped in the biggest fashion ever recorded in history. When supply is 4.3

Contracts 535

Contracts Construction Supply Chain Marketing 535

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

Tuesday’s new home sales report missed expectations and had negative revisions, which isn’t surprising given this sector of our economy simply can’t handle higher mortgage rates. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005.

Construction 369

Construction Housing Market Sellers Marketing 369

Housing Wire

MAY 18, 2022

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. This happened in 2013-2014, and in 2018 when mortgage rates moved toward 5%. percent (±7.7

Mortgage 447

Mortgage Construction Contracts Housing Market 447

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Housing construction in the U.S. Just to give you some perspective here, at the peak of 2005, we had about 2.24 months of homes they have under construction or have not even started yet. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the savagely unhealthy housing market. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders.

Construction 500

Construction Housing Market Marketing Business 500

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. mortgage rates, so on the mortgage rate side of the equation, it’s never been better. What a year 2021 has been. We started the year with many pundits saying that the U.S.

Housing Market 521

Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 521

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

This means the honey badger labor market will keep the Federal Reserve from pivoting anytime soon. . The labor market is actually running into a big theme of my economic work over the years. No country has a Dorian Gray labor market and the labor market deals with different dynamics as the baby boomers leave the workforce each year.

Marketing 474

Marketing Construction Mortgage Housing Market 474

Housing Wire

JANUARY 5, 2023

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. Mortgage rates. Home price s.

Housing Market 528

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 528

Housing Wire

JUNE 27, 2023

One group has the advantage here while the other doesn’t: The new home sales market is minuscule versus the existing one, and the builders sell their homes like a commodity. But a bigger story here is that the builders’ biggest competition isn’t other builders — it’s the number of existing homes on the market. When supply is 4.4-6.4

Construction 479

Construction Inventory Marketing Buyers 479

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

Inventory 446

Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 446

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2023

9 up until the early part of February as mortgage rates fell from 7.37% to 5.99%. To combat higher mortgage rates, builders have been cutting prices and buying down rates to move product. Just like in the existing home sales market, when sales are low, anything positive on the rate side can move the market in a positive direction.

Inventory 421

Inventory Construction Housing Market Mortgage 421

Housing Wire

MAY 26, 2022

The housing market shifted in March of this year. As the 10-year yield broke above 1.94% and mortgage rates rose, we saw the impact on housing data. Yes, crazy to think, but this is a survey trend data line, and the housing market was in free-fall at that time. housing market. Credit stress was evident from 2005 to 2008.

Inventory 491

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 491

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 15, 2024

years in 2005, according to a Redfin analysis of median U.S. housing market for multiple reasons, Redfin said. Older Americans also have financial incentives attached to staying in their homes, since 54% of the baby boomer cohort own their homes free and clear without making monthly mortgage payments. years last year, up from 6.5

Property Taxes 445

Property Taxes Insurance Construction Inventory 445

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. “I don’t expect a boom in housing construction.

Construction 498

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 498

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. million line in the sand has been this: Home prices grow above that 23% level: check Mortgage rates spike higher: check.

Mortgage 439

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 439

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2020

housing market and compare those to where we are today — in the middle of one of the most epic years in our country’s history, due to COVID-19. No doubt about it, the COVID crisis has taken some juice out of the 2020 housing market. The new home sales market is doing well as it really benefits from lower mortgage rates.

Housing Market 542

Housing Market Marketing Construction Buyers 542

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

We had a period this summer when mortgage rates moved from 6.25% back down to 5% and some of the new home sales activity picked up. million level we saw in 2005. However, it does show that the builders are in a much better spot to deal with their massive supply, compared to the 2005-2008 period. When supply is 4.4

Construction 450

Construction Sellers Inventory Housing Market 450

Housing Wire

JANUARY 19, 2022

Construction of single-family homes dropped 2.3% from November to 1.172 million units, the construction of multifamily units again posted a sizable increase of 13.7% 2021 was a strong year for construction.”. But while this is good news for new housing construction, homebuilders still have plenty of obstacles to overcome.

Construction 392

Construction Housing Market Inventory Development 392

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market. HousingWire: How will rising rates affect new home construction?

Housing Market 307

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 307

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. The truth is that if mortgage rates fell below 5.875% and kept going lower, everyone’s housing predictions would need to be revised this year because the builders can sell their homes with lower mortgage rates.

Construction 469

Construction Housing Market Inventory Mortgage 469

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

However, with active listings now near all-time lows, the builders’ new homes still have more value in the housing market than what we saw in previous decades. They can cut prices, pay down mortgage rates for their buyers, and do what they need to to make it work for them to move their products. When supply is 4.3

Inventory 530

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 530

Housing Wire

APRIL 25, 2023

According to this theory, we have more homes under construction than any time in history. In their haste, they miss the bigger picture of the housing market. In reality, housing economic modeling takes a lot of work, and some people instead choose marketing gimmicks to make a name for themselves. percent (±15.2 percent (±12.7

Inventory 459

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 459

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

To be honest here, the new home sales market is stuck for now. It gives an idea of what to expect for housing construction. months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. months, this is an OK market for the builders. months and above, the builders will pull back on construction. When supply is 6.5

Construction 375

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 375

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2021

As we enter the second quarter of 2021, it’s time for the mortgage industry to reflect on the past 12 months and think about how to plan for the same period ahead. By October, the market value of Zoom exceeded that of Exxon-Mobile , reflecting the dichotomy of an intransigent society staying at home and working remote.

Development 413

Development Lending Mortgage Marketing 413

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. The market is savagely unhealthy and needs balance; this is what we call balance!

Housing Market 389

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 389

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 2, 2020

I’m talking about housing market crash headlines. These dramatic peaks and valleys in the data have fed the demons of greed and fear that infest the minds our extreme housing bulls and the fierce housing market bears – leading to equally wild speculations about the future of U.S. Mortgage rates followed, which dampened demand.

Housing Market 545

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Design 545

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

In 2005, when the housing bubble peaked in sales at around 1.4 The housing market has been in a recession since June of this year, and we have other data lines that can be more useful in gauging the new home sales sector. months, and below, this is an excellent market for builders. months , this is an OK market for the builders.

Construction 428

Construction Marketing Housing Market Mortgage 428

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. It didn’t help the builders that they had a global pandemic and we still have many new homes either in construction or that haven’t been started yet. When supply is 4.3

Construction 336

Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 336

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2020

However, demand has construction playing catch-up , as the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was just 278,000. Sales are increasingly being driven from homes not yet under construction. And more sales means more construction means more sales: A large share (38.5%, up from 28.5% This represents a supply of 3.3

Construction 509

Construction Development Mortgage Housing Market 509

Housing Wire

JUNE 24, 2022

As you can see below, new home sales are still below the 2000 recession level, and we just had a significant spike in mortgage rates too. These monthly reports can be very wild, and I anticipate big swings in the reports until things calm down with mortgage rates. The existing home sales market monthly supply is running at 2.6

Inventory 435

Inventory Construction Marketing Mortgage 435

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

Tuesday, the new home sales report for March came in as a miss of estimates at 763,000, but the revisions were all positive, which shows that the housing data is still lagging behind the current market reality. That data shows how housing was still on pace to have another solid year before mortgage rates got over 5%. percent (±12.9

Construction 324

Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 324

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. Still, here are just a few examples of why we needed rates to rise.

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 539

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 21, 2020

At its Annual event Wednesday, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni forecast that interest rates could rise in the year to come, but that they will remain near all-time lows. The chart below shows interest rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will end this year at about 3% and could hit around 3.3%

Mortgage 382

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 382