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Unsold inventory is rising across the country

Housing Wire

It’s the end of May and unsold inventory on the market is increasing across the U.S. Every state in the country has more homes on the market now than a year ago and, in many places, new construction is being completed and added to inventory, so it’s not just resale inventory that’s growing.

Inventory 509
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How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024?

Housing Wire

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? It’s not what I wanted to see in 2024, but I have to be realistic since we are already in February. In the last four years, we have had abnormal seasonal inventory data, meaning that the spring inventory bottom happens later in the year.

Inventory 490
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Spring housing market gets more inventory

Housing Wire

Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. We have now seen it for two weeks as inventory grew by 13,247. 2022: 19.2%

Inventory 494
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Altos: Housing inventory could grow 40% this year

Housing Wire

Last fall when people were still expecting mortgage rates to be falling this year, it was common to assume rates would be in the low 6s or 5s this year and people asked me if lower rates would bring a flood of inventory. The only way inventory would grow in 2024 is if mortgage rates climbed. But the evidence is the opposite.

Inventory 498
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Why is housing inventory growing with higher mortgage rates?

Housing Wire

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. Let’s take a look at the inventory data this year to test this premise, since for many months it has been a working theory of mine that new listings data behavior last year marked a bottom and even going into 2024 we should see more sellers.

Inventory 530
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Spring forecast: More inventory and rising home sales

Housing Wire

New listing volume last week was 18% more than a year ago. Total available inventory is gradually climbing about 1% per week — last year it was still declining in April. As we roll into the second quarter, we should have accelerating inventory growth each week. All of these signals point to rising home sales in 2024.

Inventory 456
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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

Housing credit channels directly impact housing inventory channels. Home prices escalated out of control after 2020 and when we look at why that happened, we can see that housing credit mattered more to inventory data than most people realize. This matters because inventory was already heading toward all-time lows before COVID-19.

Inventory 413