Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2024

Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application data.

Mortgage 503

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 503

Housing Wire

MAY 4, 2024

My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases , inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. I wish new listings were growing faster, but I will call it a victory nonetheless.

Inventory 403

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Marketing 403

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2024

I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. This isn’t saying too much since 2023 had the lowest recorded level of new listings ever, but it’s still a plus in my book. 2022: 19.2% The mortgage spread data got worse last week.

Inventory 495

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 495

Housing Wire

MAY 28, 2023

Debt-ceiling drama pushed bond yields up last week, taking mortgage rates to a new 2023 high in the middle of the spring home-selling season. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active inventory grew 8,914 week to week, even though new listing data is still trending at all-time lows in 2023.

Housing Market 487

Housing Market Mortgage Marketing Inventory 487

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2023

housing market and that they need to be pro-housing again. Even with all the drama we have dealt with in 2022-2023, the housing market stayed intact and never broke. This got tested in 2023 with 8% mortgage rates ; not only did that not happen, but the new listing data was very stable, meaning it was forming a bottom.

Housing Market 517

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 517

Housing Wire

APRIL 9, 2023

The housing market welcomed the news of lower mortgage rates last week after four reports showed that the labor market isn’t as tight as it seems and that the fear of 1970s-entrenched inflation was a lousy narrative. Active inventory rose by 823 single-family homes and new listing data is trending at all-time lows.

Housing Market 538

Housing Market Marketing Mortgage Inventory 538

Housing Wire

MAY 11, 2024

Mortgage rates and the bond market have fallen a bit recently and the spreads between the 10-year yield and 30-year mortgage rate have improved over last year’s levels. In the past two years, demand has always picked up whenever mortgage rates have moved lower with some duration. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates.

Mortgage 394

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 394

Housing Wire

APRIL 29, 2024

The weekly volume of new listings is now higher than at anytime last year. It’s still April, so there could be as many as eight more weeks of seller growth in the spring housing market. Mortgage rates are at 7.5% Mortgage rates are now topping 7.5%, the highest levels seen this year. orate further? That’s up 2.4%

Sellers 462

Sellers Marketing Inventory Contracts 462

Housing Wire

MARCH 2, 2024

The mortgage rate lockdown premise says that if rates rise, inventory can’t grow meaningfully. The idea is that nobody will trade their low mortgage rates to buy another home — even though this happened every week last year. With mortgage rates higher, will this stop inventory from growing year over year?

Inventory 531

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 531

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

Will mortgage rates break toward 8% again, making another 2024 data line that looks like a carbon copy of 2023? It’s not part of my 2024 forecast, but since the Federal Reserve likes playing with fire , let’s look at where we are with mortgage rates and their impact on weekly housing data. Serious mortgage rate talk!

Mortgage 504

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 504

Housing Wire

MARCH 26, 2023

The financial and housing markets are still trying to sort out the banking crisis and whether we have seen the last Fed rate hike in this cycle. These events led to lower mortgage rates and increased purchase application data last week, but decreased housing inventory. In a regular market, they would be closer to 5.25%.

Inventory 434

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 434

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2024

Housing inventory, new listing data and mortgage rates are all rising, but the price cut data percentages are falling. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. I will watch for rising mortgage rates to see if they change the weekly data. So far, so good in 2024.

Inventory 536

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 536

Housing Wire

JANUARY 1, 2024

The 2023 housing market faced one of the same roadblocks we saw in 2022: mortgage rates were too high for home sales growth. Every Saturday I publish a weekly housing market tracker with forward-looking data and insights so you can adjust quickly to market conditions. If the 10-year yield gets above 4.25%, the U.S.

Housing Market 522

Housing Market Marketing New Listings Construction 522

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 4, 2023

Now that Thanksgiving is behind us and December is well under way, we can start looking ahead to the 2024 housing market. New listings and home sales remain low this week while available inventory of unsold homes is finally falling across the country after rising with mortgage rates late into November. Inventory is 1.2%

Housing Market 483

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 483

Housing Wire

MAY 28, 2024

It’s the end of May and unsold inventory on the market is increasing across the U.S. Every state in the country has more homes on the market now than a year ago and, in many places, new construction is being completed and added to inventory, so it’s not just resale inventory that’s growing. Let’s look at the details of the U.S.

Inventory 511

Inventory New Listings Contracts Sellers 511

Housing Wire

APRIL 15, 2024

We saw a big jump in mortgage rates last week. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage, according to the HousingWire Mortgage Rates Center , is now over 7.2% — that’s 50 basis points above where we were at the start of the year. At that time, most of the voices in the media assumed that mortgage rates had peaked and would fall by now.

Inventory 373

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Sellers 373

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 4, 2024

How will mortgage rates impact seasonal inventory in 2024? Also, when mortgage rates rise, the inventory peak happens later in the year. I am a very pro-housing supply person and will feel much better about the housing market when we return to pre-COVID-19 levels for total active listings.

Inventory 493

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Housing Market 493

Housing Wire

APRIL 13, 2024

Mortgage rates headed higher last week after the CPI inflation report , but now, with news of a wider war in the Middle East, should we expect even higher rates? Some argue that money will go into the safety of the bond market, while others say a wider war can lead to higher inflation and higher rates.

Inventory 422

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Retail 422

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2024

Mortgage rates inched higher last week ahead of the Federal Reserve ’s Federal Open Markets Committee on Wednesday and the national jobs report on Friday. As of April 26, there were 556,000 single-family homes on the market, up 2.4% About 13,000 additional properties were added to the market during the previous week.

Mortgage 351

Mortgage New Listings Inventory Sellers 351

Housing Wire

MARCH 9, 2024

We survived jobs week and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talking to Congress, with mortgage rates ending the week below 7%. But will mortgage rates keep heading lower? Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for all my housing work, so I focus on it religiously. We haven’t broken either yet.

Mortgage 439

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 439

Housing Wire

APRIL 23, 2023

Can we now say that the housing market ‘s spring selling season is finally underway? We didn’t see too much volatility in mortgage rates last week, but purchase apps declined in reaction to rates rising two weeks ago. Mortgage rates started the week off at 6.61% and ended at 6.66%, so a calm week on the rate front.

Inventory 543

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 543

Housing Wire

MARCH 16, 2024

The 10-year yield is at the same critical point as last year before the Fed went hawkish and sent mortgage rates to 8% and the 10-year yield to 5%. A serious 10-year yield and mortgage rate talk My work on housing moves around the 10-year yield and the economics that move that. Could this happen again?

Housing Market 433

Housing Market Inventory New Listings Marketing 433

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 9, 2023

The most underreported housing story I’ve seen this year is that even with mortgage rates rising to 8%, the number of homes that took price cuts before they sold was 4% below 2022 levels. This happened even with higher home prices and higher mortgage rates in 2023. Now lets take a look at the weekly inventory data.

Mortgage 517

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 517

Housing Wire

APRIL 16, 2023

The seasonal housing inventory bottom evaded us again last week as active listings fell and new listing inventory decreased. Mortgage rates didn’t move much last week, but the 10-year yield rose even though inflation data was tamer than expected, and we had a weaker retail sales report number.

Inventory 520

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 520

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 25, 2023

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield ended the week roughly flat.

Inventory 521

Inventory Mortgage New Listings Buyers 521

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 2, 2023

Mortgage rates almost fell below 7%, the 10-year yield is below 4.25% again, and people are seriously talking about Fed rate cuts in 2024. Mortgage rates have fallen by almost 1% in a short time, and it has created four straight weeks of positive purchase application data. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield We are back!

Mortgage 542

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Sellers 542

Housing Wire

MAY 7, 2023

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. We had a lot of drama over the week between Federal Reserve meetings and banking stress, and mortgage rates and purchase applications both fell.

Inventory 482

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 482

Housing Wire

APRIL 30, 2023

The spring housing market music is playing, and purchase application data and active listing inventory rose together last week. The other focus should be where mortgage rates go; only a little happened last week. Also, the volume of active listings was higher in 2022 this week, even though we were working from a lower level.

Inventory 510

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 510

Housing Wire

JULY 9, 2023

In addition, mortgage rates rose to a yearly high as labor data stayed firm and purchase apps had their first negative week after three straight weeks of positive growth. This is truly a savagely unhealthy housing market as we have too many people chasing too few homes. The weekly active listing data had a rare week-to-week decline.

Inventory 453

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 453

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 4, 2023

After mortgage rates spiked to 8% in October, causing a riot in the real estate industry, we had an epic move lower in mortgage rates last week. Does this mean we’ve hit the peak in mortgage rates for this economic cycle? When mortgage rates rise and demand decreases, the percentage of homes with price cuts can grow.

Mortgage 451

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Real Estate 451

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 30, 2023

Going into 2023, people thought housing inventory would skyrocket, home prices would crash, and we would see the housing market of 2008 all over again. We created this weekly tracker at the end of 2022 to give people a live weekly outlook on everything that drives the housing market and which factors to follow.

Inventory 488

Inventory New Listings Housing Market Mortgage 488

Housing Wire

MARCH 6, 2024

Housing professionals already know that high mortgage rates are bad for business. But with mortgage rates ascending past 7% according to HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center , those hopes have so far been dashed in 2024. Bad for sellers Prospective home sellers may not notice incremental changes in mortgage rates.

Mortgage 381

Mortgage Sellers New Listings Buyers 381

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

Mortgage rates have risen recently but they could be much worse than they are today. Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. The most important data line for me, along with mortgage rates , is jobless claims data because I value labor data over inflation. That hasn’t happened.

Mortgage 445

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Housing Market 445

Housing Wire

MAY 23, 2024

However, we need to keep an eye on the housing construction data in this report because it has huge implications for the economic cycle, our recession risk and mortgage rates. When single-family permit demand collapsed in 2022 , we still had a healthy backlog of homes that needed to be finished.

Marketing 394

Marketing Construction Mortgage Housing Market 394

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Why are mortgage rates rising? We have had back-to-back weeks of the bond market getting wild since the key 10-year yield level of 4.34% broke higher. It didn’t help that the Fed was hawkish after the Fed meeting , as their forward outlook surprised some market players. Land the plane, folks, land the plane!

Mortgage 473

Mortgage Inventory New Listings Government 473

Housing Wire

MAY 21, 2023

It was a wild ride for the housing market last week! The 10-year yield rose noticeably, sending mortgage rates near 7% right in the heart of the spring selling season. New listings data fell, however, active inventory grew. Mortgage rates rose last week as we started the week at 6.55% but ended at 6.90%.

Housing Market 477

Housing Market Marketing Inventory New Listings 477

Housing Wire

JUNE 11, 2023

After seeing disappointing inventory growth two weeks ago , which I chalked up to the Memorial Day holiday, I was hoping for a big push in active listings last week, but that didn’t happen. And, the recent uptick in mortgage rates to almost 7% slowed purchase application data again. Of course, we have a third story in this U.S.

Inventory 476

Inventory Housing Market Marketing New Listings 476