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The mortgage rate lock-in didn’t start in 2022

Housing Wire

After an initial rush to get to market in Q2 2022, new listings volume fell precipitously. In July 2022, new listings volume per week dropped from 90,000 at the end of June to approximately 74,000 just after the July 4th holiday. That’s a swing of 17% fewer sellers in just a matter of days.

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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

Home prices escalated out of control after 2020 and when we look at why that happened, we can see that housing credit mattered more to inventory data than most people realize. On March 18, 2020, purchase application data broke out to pre-cycle highs in demand. So you can see why we have so few stressed sellers.

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Redfin: New and Active Listings Increased in April as Home Prices Continued to Rise

Appraisal Buzz

New listings increased 1.7% Still, new listings were roughly 20% below pre-pandemic levels, in large part because many homeowners don’t want to sell, as they feel “locked in” by the low mortgage rate they scored during the pandemic. Active listings rose to the highest level since December 2020 in April.

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The awesome power of high mortgage rates

Housing Wire

Bad for sellers Prospective home sellers may not notice incremental changes in mortgage rates. percentage points—sellers take notice. Facing these realities, many would-be sellers decide to stay put. This is clear in the chart below, which shows the year-over-year percent change in the four-week average of new listings.

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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

In the previous expansion, one of my long-term calls was that the MBA purchase application data will never hit the volume level of 300 until the years 2020-2024. Right on cue, 2020 came and we hit the 300 level. The years 2020-2024 were going to be the time when total home sales could finally reach 6.2 We are up 43% since 2020.

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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the new listing data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused new listing data to stall at first.

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DataDigest: Where for-sale inventory went and when it’s coming back

Housing Wire

With mortgage rates briefly topping 8% and home prices breaking records throughout the year, many would-be sellers simply decided not to bother listing their homes, exacerbating already tight inventories. New data from the U.S. When inventory bounces back The extremes of the 2020s have dealt big blows to for-sale inventories.

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