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Spring forecast: More inventory and rising home sales

Housing Wire

As mortgage rates rose starting in 2022, payment affordability got dramatically worse and homebuyer demand dried up. New listing volume last week was 18% more than a year ago. Pending sales Last week saw 69,000 new contracts for single-family home purchases across the country. Why the difference?

Inventory 457
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Altos: Are higher mortgage already rates deterring homebuyers?

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates are back up over 7% this morning on the back of strong economic growth data. The 10-year bond yield jumped back over 4% and that pushes mortgage rates higher too. Mortgage rates are 40 basis points higher than a month ago, and 100 basis points higher than a year ago. And mortgage rates are 100 basis points higher.

Mortgage 403
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Home price gains slow as mortgage rates rise: Altos

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates are back over 7%. The economy has continued to be strong, so mortgage rates have defied expectations and remained very high. New listings rise New listings continue to show us that more sellers are interested in this market this year. Inventory is back at 2019 levels in many of these markets.

Mortgage 481
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Expect the growth rate of existing home prices to cool down this year

Housing Wire

So, unless mortgage rates drop fast and demand picks up, inventory should have an average year of growth before the seasonal decline. Looking at the chart above, inventory started growing late this year, but it seems normal compared to 2017-2019. We have had two times recently when mortgage rates dropped more than 1%.

Inventory 449
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How this week’s Fed meeting could impact inventory

Housing Wire

At the time, I observed that even if mortgage rates stayed flat, the momentum seemed to be in the cards for broad, slow growth in the market. However, mortgage rates didn’t stay flat. 1 and as of today, March 18, mortgage rates are 30-40 basis points higher than Jan. This week in 2022 was the last of the 3% mortgages.

Inventory 384
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Altos: Housing inventory could grow 40% this year

Housing Wire

Last fall when people were still expecting mortgage rates to be falling this year, it was common to assume rates would be in the low 6s or 5s this year and people asked me if lower rates would bring a flood of inventory. The only way inventory would grow in 2024 is if mortgage rates climbed. But the evidence is the opposite.

Inventory 499
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Home price signals point to flat growth

Housing Wire

As mortgage rates stay elevated and the number of unsold homes on the market grows — especially in the South — the leading indicators for future home sales prices continue to be softer than the current headlines suggest. That can change if mortgage rates fall dramatically, but the current trends show weakening home prices, not strengthening.

Inventory 392