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Spring forecast: More inventory and rising home sales

Housing Wire

At the same time, seller volume dried up. But now sellers are coming back into the market. Total available inventory is gradually climbing about 1% per week — last year it was still declining in April. As we roll into the second quarter, we should have accelerating inventory growth each week. That’ll feel like a lot!

Inventory 457
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The standoff between homebuyers and sellers

Housing Wire

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. Inventory, which has been falling for years, broke to all-time lows in 2020. We didn’t have a seasonal push in inventory in 2020, and things worsened in 2021. Image by Brandon Johnson/HW Media.). million active listings, but at just 1.28

Sellers 498
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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

It’s an excellent time to discuss housing inventory. How can housing inventory be so low today when it skyrocketed back in 2009? If you follow the trend of housing supply since 2014, it’s been falling every year — with a pause in 2018-2019 — and then collapsed lower post-2020. I don’t believe housing inventory below 1.52

Inventory 492
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. We saw this happen in 2013-2014 and 2018-2019.

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Typical homebuyers made $107,000 annually, used a real estate agent in 2023: NAR survey

Housing Wire

Homebuyers’ median household income increased by $19,000 this year from 2022, reaching $107,000, according to the National Association of Realtors ’ 2023 Profile of Homebuyers and Sellers. The report is an annual survey of homebuyers and sellers who closed transactions between July 2022 and June 2023.

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Can first-time homebuyers afford homes today?

Housing Wire

Since October of 2022, the share of buyers who are purchasing their home without a mortgage has been more than one quarter of the market. The share is collected monthly in the Realtors Confidence Index and includes buyers who purchased primary homes, vacation homes and investors. In March of 2022, sellers received an average of 5.5

Realtors 406
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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory. Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter.

Mortgage 513