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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008. Just look how lousy credit looked below in 2005, 2006 and 2007 — all before the job-loss recession in 2008. Demographics also play a role here.

Inventory 468
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. This time around, we have not seen the kind of housing credit boom that we did from 2002-2005. New listing data is down 5% year to date, as you can imagine.

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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 384
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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

We have had two historic events that created a waterfall dive in demand recently; we now have precise data showing new listing data declining with those events, which shows how important that data line is to housing demand. Mortgage rates spiked in March, and then the new listing data started to decline at the end of June.

Inventory 528
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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory grows

Housing Wire

Weekly housing inventory Since new listing data was trending at all-time lows in 2023, some feared we wouldn’t see the typical spring inventory increase. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing. didn’t go into recession until 2008.

Inventory 520
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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory falls

Housing Wire

Just when I thought it was safe to say we were getting more traditional spring housing inventory , we hit a snag last week, as active inventory and new listings declined. New listing data was trending at all-time lows in 2021 abd 2022 and now it’s creating a new all-time low trend in 2023.

Inventory 491
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

During that period, we saw new listing data decline. However, in 2020 new listing data came back, and we don’t want to see the new listings continue to decline this year — that would be a double negative for the housing market. So the fact that we are back to an average of 26 days on market makes me happier.

Inventory 541