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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

.” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well. This explains why total active listing inventory data has been stable over the decades, with the exception of 2006-2011, when those forced distressed credit home sellers couldn’t buy.

Inventory 505
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 381
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

The lack of sellers is also a demand problem and what we saw after June of 2022 is that sellers called it quits earlier and faster in the year than usual, resulting in total existing home sales totaling 5,030,000 to end 2022. During that period, we saw new listing data decline.

Inventory 536
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Days on market grow despite low inventory for existing homes

Housing Wire

NAR Research : First-time buyers were responsible for 28% of sales in October; All-cash sales accounted for 26%; Individual investors purchased 16%; Distressed sales represented 1% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 21 days in October. We saw new listing data decline when rates got to 6.25% the first time.

Inventory 459
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Housing inventory still near record lows

Housing Wire

If we are trending below 4 million — a possibility with new listing data trending at all-time lows — then we have much weaker demand than people think. million before we saw the massive stress spike in supply from 2005 to 2007. We have a workable range for 2023 sales in the existing home sales market between 4 million and 4.6

Inventory 518