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Logan Mohtashami’s 2023 housing market forecast

Housing Wire

The 2022 housing market was savagely unhealthy , with all-time lows in inventory leading to massive bidding wars and price spikes until the Fed put a screeching halt to all of it with rate hikes that resulted in the most significant one-year spike in mortgage rate history. How I look at rates is intertwined with how I look at the bond market.

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Higher rates flip the homebuilders’ fortunes (again)

Housing Wire

As I have stressed for months, the new home sales levels are historically low and don’t account for the cancellation rate. Just like in the existing home sales market, when sales are low, anything positive on the rate side can move the market in a positive direction. months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.

Inventory 423
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The homebuilders got lucky this time

Housing Wire

They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. In an odd twist of fate, the delays due to COVID-19 are currently an infrastructure and jobs program for Americans in the construction industry. Here’s the breakout: 71,000 new homes have been completed: 1.4 months of supply.