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Builders apply the brakes amid canceled contracts

Housing Wire

For this reason, the number of housing units “under construction” is the largest ever recorded in history because they were taking so long to finish. For the builders, they have a new problem: they had homes under contract and then mortgage rates jumped in the biggest fashion ever recorded in history. When supply is 4.3

Contracts 533
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How will rising rates affect new home construction?

Housing Wire

Census Bureau released their construction report for February, showing a positive trend in housing construction data with a lovely print in housing permits at 1,859,000 and housing starts at 1,769,000. So far, housing construction has done well during 2020-2022 considering the economic drama. Today, the U.S.

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The new home sales recession continues

Housing Wire

The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with.

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Housing starts data lags reality of higher mortgage rates

Housing Wire

Census Bureau released their new residential construction report for April, showing a miss on the estimate and a negative revisions data line, which I believe is lagging behind the current market reality. As you can see below, the housing demand data from 2002 to 2005 was never apparent in any housing data lines from 2018 to 2022.

Mortgage 445
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Are new home sales flagging a recession?

Housing Wire

Going back to the summer of 2020, the one factor that I said could change the housing market was the 10-year yield getting above 1.94%. The market is savagely unhealthy and needs balance; this is what we call balance! As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. Guess what happened in March?

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The homebuilders got lucky this time

Housing Wire

They have less competition as they are working from low sales levels in today’s housing market. In an odd twist of fate, the delays due to COVID-19 are currently an infrastructure and jobs program for Americans in the construction industry. 291,000 homes are still under construction: 5.7 months of supply.

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Latest housing starts data is good for mortgage rates

Housing Wire

What we see in this latest starts report is encouraging, as a record number of 5-units are still in construction and anything that gets finished is positive against inflation. As you can see, the 1974 recession destroyed the 5-unit construction production. Like most recessions, when demand falls, so does production.

Mortgage 488