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Housing inventory is down 40%. Buyers are paying the price

Housing Wire

Instead of making up for the shortfall, new listings have slumped further in 2021. Year-over-year, new listing volumes were down 16% in January and 21% in February — amounting to a 125,000 deficit in inventory compared to the same time in 2020. year-over-year in January, the most growth in a single year since 2005.

Inventory 493
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How housing credit is shaping housing inventory

Housing Wire

After 2010, qualified mortgage laws were in place, meaning everyone getting a mortgage has to be able to repay the loan. You can see the drastic change this made in the Mortgage Bankers Association Credit Availability index , below, which skyrocketed in 2005 and 2006 before an epic collapse in 2008.

Inventory 416
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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

But I need to explain why this level has more in common with 2014 housing data than the credit stress markets of 2005-2008, and why you should care. In the summer of 2020, I talked about how the housing market would change, but it needed the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%, which roughly means 4% plus mortgage rates.

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Lower mortgage rates are stabilizing the housing market

Housing Wire

Since the weaker CPI data was released in November, bond yields and mortgage rates have been heading lower. The question then was: What would lower mortgage rates do to this data? However, mortgage rates have fallen more than 1% since the recent highs, so it’s time to look at the data to explain how to interpret it.

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Have we found the bottom in existing home sales?

Housing Wire

. “The principal factor was the rapid increase in mortgage rates, which hurt housing affordability and reduced incentives for homeowners to list their homes. ” One of the housing economic realities that I have been trying to stress this year is that a traditional seller of a home is typically a buyer as well.

Inventory 505
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Why home-price growth is still up 18% year over year

Housing Wire

However, we haven’t had a credit sales boom like the one we saw from 2002-2005. Total Inventory had been growing from 2001-2005; total listings data in 2005 was at the higher historical range of 2.5 million listings. Today, we stand at 1,310,000 active listings. New listings are declining now.

Inventory 381
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Housing inventory falls under 1M again as sales collapse

Housing Wire

From NAR : “December was another difficult month for buyers, who continue to face limited inventory and high mortgage rates ,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. However, expect sales to pick up again soon since mortgage rates have markedly declined after peaking late last year.” Also, this is what the Federal Reserve wants.

Inventory 536