Housing Wire

MARCH 18, 2022

While demand is solid, the savagely unhealthy aspect of housing is continuing. Inventory has broken to all-time lows, but it doesn’t look like the year-over-year data will be positive at all this year unless demand softens up. NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month NAR Research : Unsold inventory sits at a 1.7-month

Housing Market 540

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Sellers 540

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2023

If there’s one sector of the economy that benefits from the very low levels of total housing inventory , it’s the homebuilders , but for a reason you might not think. If national housing inventory were back to normal, we would have 2 to 2.5 Rates did spike from 5.99% to 7.10% recently , impacting the data coming up.

Inventory 528

Inventory Housing Market Construction Marketing 528

Housing Wire

MAY 19, 2022

million , with double-digit home-price growth driving a housing market that is still savagely unhealthy. However, this year has seen one big game-changer: the 10-year yield finally cracked over 1.94%, which drove mortgage rates over 4%. The real story in housing has been the price boom that we have seen since 2020.

Housing Market 512

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Realtors 512

Housing Wire

JUNE 28, 2022

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Imagine if mortgage rates didn’t rise this year. We are still showing double-digit home-price growth trends in the recent data as it takes time for higher mortgage rates to really increase supply back to normal levels. million or higher.

Housing Market 446

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Investors 446

Housing Wire

APRIL 20, 2022

However, the real story of 2022 is that the savagely unhealthy housing market continues as inventory is still lower than last year, sending home prices growth into double digits again. housing market; the 10-year is above 1.94%, something that didn’t happen in 2020 or 2021. Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month

Housing Market 476

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Mortgage 476

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 8, 2021

My biggest concern for housing in the years 2020-2024 was that if the demographic push in demand picks up and total home sales get over 6. 2 million , we could be at risk of housing inventory falling to such low levels that I would have to categorize this housing market as unhealthy.

Inventory 509

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 509

Housing Wire

JANUARY 12, 2022

Early in 2021, when I was talking about how people should worry about home prices overheating, I had a glimmer of hope that maybe toward the end of 2021 we would be spared another seasonal collapse of inventory. Inventory always falls in the fall and winter, but I hoped it wouldn’t be a repeat of 2020.

Inventory 535

Inventory Mortgage Housing Market Marketing 535

Housing Wire

APRIL 8, 2022

Home prices are skyrocketing, housing inventory is at all-time lows and homebuyers have to contend with multiple bids. In time, markets always find balance and balance is a good thing. But, that doesn’t mean housing is going to crash. Inventory velocity. April 10, 2020: We needed a lot of inventory, fast.

Housing Market 390

Housing Market Marketing Inventory Lending 390

Housing Wire

JUNE 2, 2022

One top question he addresses is how the industry is reacting to this savagely unhealthy housing market. HW+ Member: What’s the number one question you are getting from the real estate agent community on the economy and housing market? The big difference now than, let’s say, what we saw from 2002-2008.

Training 385

Training Inventory Housing Market Real Estate Agent 385

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2022

The bigger story here is that if we want to see mortgage rates fall, we need more rental units, and right now we have a massive backlog of 2-unit homes under construction — over 900,000. Traditionally, housing starts, permits, and completions would move together, like what we saw in 2002-2005.

Housing Market 389

Housing Market Marketing Construction Supply Chain 389

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 29, 2021

A bullish housing market. economic recovery was a false story and that we were about to embark on a second housing bubble crash due to forbearance. The housing market didn’t crash at all, in fact, more Americans bought homes with mortgages in 2021 than in 2020. What a year 2021 has been. The excellent.

Housing Market 520

Housing Market Marketing Construction Mortgage 520

Housing Wire

MARCH 23, 2022

We finally got mortgage rates to rise, and for people like me who have been concerned about how unhealthy the housing market was last year — and it got a lot worse this year — it’s a blessing that was much needed. This sector on an apples-to-apples basis is more expensive than the existing home sales market. percent (±11.9

Mortgage 435

Mortgage Inventory Housing Market Construction 435

Housing Wire

MARCH 28, 2022

However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Inventory has been falling for years.

Housing Market 303

Housing Market Marketing Supply Chain Inventory 303

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

. “This is about the same rate of price growth that occurred during the 2002 through 2006 period when subprime lending drove exuberant housing demand. “But that is where the similarities end. Mortgage holders are well-qualified and subprime loans are rare. ”

Inventory 426

Inventory Housing Market Lending Buyers 426

Housing Wire

AUGUST 19, 2021

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined slightly to 2.86% for the week ending in August 19, according to mortgage rates data released Thursday by Freddie Mac ‘s PMMS. The week prior, mortgage rates rose to 2.87% , after six consecutive weeks of mortgage rate declines. Last week, mortgage applications decreased 3.9%

Mortgage 502

Mortgage Supply Chain Inventory Finance 502

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 11, 2022

There’s a showdown at the housing market corral between homebuyers and sellers. When I came up with the “ savagely unhealthy housing market ” label in February of this year, it was based on the premise that the housing inflation story that we have had to deal with since 2020 was a historical event.

Sellers 498

Sellers Inventory Housing Market New Listings 498

Housing Wire

MARCH 31, 2022

That’s not to say that the data points the Fed used are incorrect — in fact, we are in a savagely unhealthy housing market , but it’s not a bubble. First, because there is no speculative debt demand going on today, there can’t be a housing bubble. housing market behavior for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s.

Housing Market 515

Housing Market Inventory Lending Marketing 515

Housing Wire

JULY 13, 2022

Looking at the housing market in the years 2020-2024, one risk i identified early on was that home prices could accelerate more in this period than we saw in the previous expansion if inventory channels broke to all-time lows. housing market as savagely unhealthy. Over the last two and a half years of U.S.

Inventory 539

Inventory Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 539

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

New home sales missed estimates today but had three months of positive revisions, which continues the story of the builders managing the higher mortgage rate environment. However, higher mortgage rates make it harder and harder to pull some of those deals off. The question is, what happens in the future with higher mortgage rates?

Inventory 443

Inventory Construction Housing Market Marketing 443

Housing Wire

AUGUST 16, 2022

Tuesday’s housing starts report clearly shows that homebuilders are going to be done with single-family construction until mortgage rates fall. Currently, we are in a much different housing recession than what we had from 2005-2011. The credit cycle looks much different now than the build-up from 2002-2005.

Mortgage 529

Mortgage Construction Inventory Buyers 529

Housing Wire

MAY 24, 2022

A few months ago, I wrote that the new home sales sector is at risk because of rising mortgage rates. A lot of the housing data was lagging the rate move, so it wasn’t apparent that higher rates impacted the data yet. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. Slow and steady wins the race.

Housing Market 388

Housing Market Inventory Construction Marketing 388

Housing Wire

JULY 6, 2022

As recession talk becomes more prevalent, some people are concerned that mortgage credit lending will get much tighter. When people say credit will get so tight that we are headed back to 2008 levels of lending, they’re telling me they’ve never read the MBA’s mortgage credit availability index, not even one time.

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Lending Mortgage Business Inventory 476

Housing Wire

SEPTEMBER 22, 2022

Even though this was a beat of estimates, the sales decline trend due to higher mortgage rates and home prices continues. The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates. . Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month

Inventory 434

Inventory Housing Market New Listings Mortgage 434

Housing Wire

JULY 26, 2022

This data line confirms what we all know to be the case: The housing market, at least as it relates to construction, is in a recession. Since the summer of 2020, I have genuinely believed the housing market could change once the 10-year yield broke over 1.94%. It is what it is: the housing dilemma we live with in America.

Construction 498

Construction Housing Market Inventory Marketing 498

Housing Wire

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

However, the housing market did run into one problem in 2020. Inventory levels broke to all-time lows and thus created massive housing inflation quickly, which broke my model. I knew housing would be OK as long as home prices only grew at 23% over five years — 4.6% nominal per year at most.

New Listings 463

New Listings Inventory Housing Market Sellers 463

Housing Wire

JANUARY 20, 2022

From NAR: In the last few months of the year, existing home sales have been outperforming my sales ranges noticeably, and I talked about how sales could moderate, but mortgage demand ended 2021 on a solid note. million is if home prices accelerate above my five-year cumulative growth rate of 23% and mortgage rates rise. million to 6.2

Inventory 453

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 453

Housing Wire

AUGUST 30, 2022

While the growth rate is cooling monthly, we are still in a savagely unhhealthy housing market trying to get national inventory levels back to pre-COVID-19 levels. I have documented the history of these housing price crash addicts for a decade now. Housing inventory issue with no booming demand.

Inventory 380

Inventory New Listings Law Housing Market 380

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 12, 2020

Despite what they promised, we sit here today with the United States housing market outperforming all other economic sectors in the world during the pandemic. In order for the housing market to crash due to too many loans going into default when forbearance programs end, the number of loans in these programs needs to grow.

Inventory 545

Inventory Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 545

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 22, 2021

It’s the same reason I have given for many years: the American bears who are typically housing crash addicts can’t read data correctly, and the mortgage purchase application data just proved my point once again. Then everyone went crazy on investors and iBuyers , suggesting that these people were holding up the entire housing market.

Inventory 451

Inventory Housing Market Investors Marketing 451

Housing Wire

MAY 9, 2022

housing market follow Canada? In short, the answer is no, we won’t have the type of home-price velocity that Canada has experienced because our housing market is more diverse than theirs. housing market is more tied to mortgage buyers. from 2002-to 2005, which led to forced credit selling.

Buyers 525

Buyers Housing Market Mortgage Marketing 525

Housing Wire

MARCH 17, 2022

We had more housing starts during the bubble years because from 2002 to 2005 that demand curve was higher, but it was facilitated by unhealthy credit growth. The homebuyers of new homes today are very solid, but since we don’t have a credit boom in housing, housing starts will move up slowly. Housing completions.

Construction 437

Construction Housing Market Inventory Buyers 437

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 23, 2022

One of the realities of COVID-19 has been the lag to build homes in a business that requires stable mortgage rates because of the traditional time to complete a home. Mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 7.375% this year. That would reverse the problem the housing market has had selling homes with mortgage rates above 7%.

Construction 333

Construction Housing Market Mortgage Sellers 333

Housing Wire

FEBRUARY 24, 2022

The real question is how much higher mortgage rates will bite the most sensitive sector to rates: new homes. This stands in contrast to the existing home sales market, where higher mortgage rates can create more inventory and cool down price growth. It hasn’t for a reason; that was always a marketing pitch.

Construction 372

Construction Housing Market Marketing Mortgage 372

Housing Wire

APRIL 27, 2022

That data shows how housing was still on pace to have another solid year before mortgage rates got over 5%. The most recent housing starts data on permits and starts side of the equation was fine this month, but it also lagged the current rates environment. From Census: For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply: The seasonally?adjusted

Construction 320

Construction Buyers Housing Market Inventory 320

Housing Wire

DECEMBER 20, 2021

Even in the extreme conditions of COVID-19, my general premise on housing economics predicted that the two variables with the most influence — demographics and mortgage rates — would hold up the housing market. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates. The forecast. Current conditions don’t support this. The backstory.

Housing Market 538

Housing Market Inventory Mortgage Marketing 538

Housing Wire

OCTOBER 31, 2022

One of the unsung heroes of the most prolonged economic and job expansion ever recorded in history was the passing of the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act and the 2010 qualified mortgage rule under Dodd-Frank. During the build-up to when the housing bubble burst, housing was getting noticeably weaker on many fronts.

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Law Inventory Lending Mortgage 509

Housing Wire

AUGUST 23, 2022

Tuesday’s new home sales report missed expectations and had negative revisions, which isn’t surprising given this sector of our economy simply can’t handle higher mortgage rates. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005.

Construction 369

Construction Housing Market Sellers Marketing 369