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Logan Mohtashami on why this is a savagely unhealthy housing market

Housing Wire

HousingWire: How will rising rates affect new home construction? Housing construction will be impacted if the monthly supply for new homes breaks above 6.5 The only thing that I believe creates balance in the housing market is higher rates because the sellers and builders have too much pricing power in this low inventory environment.

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The 2021 housing market recap by Logan Mohtashami

Housing Wire

Housing permits are growing and this is a good thing for the economy and construction jobs. While I have never been a housing construction boom guy because mature economies typically don’t have a construction boom, the fact that permits are keeping their uptrend is a big positive for the United States of America.

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SELLERS’ MARKET? HOW ABOUT BUILDERS’ MARKET?

Will Springer Realtor

Amid rising land and construction costs, permits for single-family homes in King County slowed in the third quarter to 940, down 7.8% Who said this is a sellers’ market? “In Lot availability is at multi-decade lows and the construction industry currently has more than 330,000 open positions.”. construction jobs in the U.S.,

Sellers 36
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Comparing this housing market recession to 2008

Housing Wire

The housing market of 2002-2005 had four years of sales growth facilitated by credit. However, what isn’t identical is that we have not had a massive sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This is significantly different than the period from 2002-2005 when credit expansion was booming. Home sales. Housing credit.

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Purchase apps are at 2009 level: where’s the inventory?

Housing Wire

That’s not the case now because we have’t had a credit boom post-2010 as we did from 2002 to 2005. However, the spike in inventory that we saw from 2006 to 2011 can be attributed to the massive credit bubble we had from 2002 to 2005. We have more housing starts under construction now than in recent history!

Inventory 513
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Are new home sales flagging a recession?

Housing Wire

I know some people don’t agree with me on this, but the price gains in both the existing home and new home sales sector show that homebuilders and sellers had too much pricing power and needed to be checked. As you can see, sales levels were never elevated like what we saw from 2002-2005. The only way this happens is by higher rates.

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Builders only have 76,000 completed new homes for sale

Housing Wire

This is why I have called them efficient home sellers. As we can see in the chart below, sales levels aren’t exactly booming like they were from 2002-2005. months, the builders will pause construction. months, and we had a big miss on housing starts last week , mostly coming from multifamily construction. We are at 7.8

Inventory 480