August, 2024

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To avoid recession, the Fed needs a housing comeback

Housing Wire

One key data line that is flagging a path to recession is the loss of residential construction workers. The number of workers who build single-family and multifamily homes and do remodeling work tend to decline before every recession as higher interest rates dispositionally impact the economy through housing. While the unemployment rate has increased recently , jobless claims have yet to rise to a level that warrants a job-loss recession.

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U.S. Foreclosure Activity Rises Amid Market Shifts

Appraisal Buzz

The U.S. foreclosure market experienced a notable uptick in July 2024, with foreclosure filings increasing by 15% from the previous month, according to the latest report from ATTOM Data, a land, property, and real estate data firm. A total of 31,929 properties across the nation faced foreclosure actions, which include default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions.

Marketing 450
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Wildfires threaten 2.6 million homes in the western U.S.: CoreLogic

Housing Wire

Climate change has supercharged wildfires in high-risk areas across the country, and the impacts on housing could be catastrophic. A new report from CoreLogic found that 2.6 million homes across 14 western states are at risk from wildfires. California is by far the state with the most homes in danger at 1,258,748, followed by Colorado (321,294) and Texas (244,617).

Insurance 106
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Lower mortgage rates are slowing down inventory growth

Housing Wire

Have lower mortgage rates already started to slow down housing inventory? I have a simple weekly growth model with the Altos inventory data: when rates are high, over 7.25%, inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly. This has happened six times this year and even though that would be an average inventory growth level with higher rates, it didn’t happen even once last year.

Inventory 518
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Unlock The Blueprint: How To Construct A Better Payment Workflow

Speaker: Timothy Allsopp

Payment challenges often lead to delayed projects, financial bottlenecks, and strained relationships. With construction projects becoming more complex, outdated processes are no longer sustainable. By refining financial workflow, companies can improve cash flow, reduce error, and foster trust between stakeholders. Discover practical strategies for redesigning payment systems to overcome workflow challenges while creating a smoother, more reliable process for contractors and subcontractors alike.

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NAR, Move named in new lawsuit alleging sale of fake leads

Housing Wire

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is facing yet another lawsuit. The latest complaint, which is seeking class-action status, was filed on Friday by eight real estate agents in Los Angeles County Superior Court. The suit claims that NAR, along with Move Inc., Move Sales , OpCity Acquisitions , OpCity Inc. and REA Group Ltd. — which, according to the complaints, are all wholly owned subsidiaries of Move and News Corp , who is also a defendant — defrauded agents by selling them fake lead

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Have lower mortgage rates boosted housing demand yet?

Housing Wire

Have lower mortgage rates positively impacted the housing demand data yet? Some people have been very disappointed with the data so far, so I wanted to take an in-depth look with this week’s tracker to see what lower rates have done to these key data lines. Let’s look at two of those data lines today to see if we can spot a positive trend.

Mortgage 517
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Mortgage rates drop to lowest level of 2024

Housing Wire

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.62% on Thursday, a new low for 2024 that appears to be tied to the expectation that the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. This is according to data reported by Mortgage News Daily. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut is a possibility after the September meeting if economic data continues to trend in the right direction.

Mortgage 518
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Feeling the squeeze: NAR settlement terms trigger commission compression

Housing Wire

Although the industry is barely than a week into the “ new normal ,” some real estate agents and brokers are already seeing smaller buy-side commissions. “It kind of started before the [ National Association of Realtors ] settlement went into effect, but commission compression is a real thing,” Brian Huskey, the broker-owner of Montana-based ERA American Real Estate , said.

Brokerage 511
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Mortgage rates plummet and everything has suddenly changed — for now

Housing Wire

Prospective borrowers with strong credit are locking in mortgages this week at the lowest rates in more than a year, loan officers and lending executives told HousingWire on Friday. A sample of more than a dozen industry professionals said they were quoting most borrowers in the high 5% to low 6% range on government loans and in the mid-6% range for conventional mortgages.

Mortgage 514
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Need Curated Pre-foreclosure Lists to Generate New Real Estate Leads? Trellis Has the Data!

Trellis is a state trial court research and analytics platform that provides Real Estate Professionals (Buyers, Foreclosure, Loan Modification, etc.) with LEADS on Pre-Foreclosures, Lis Pendes, Distressed Assets and more — to help uncover **new** opportunities and grow their business. The process is quick and easy — and all in real time. Trellis will supply you with a link to the relevant dockets, a Leads sheet and access to its UI where applicable.

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Rocket rolls out temporary rate buydown for lower-income households

Housing Wire

Detroit-headquartered Rocket Mortgage on Monday rolled out a lender-paid 2-1 temporary buydown program for lower-income households. The program, dubbed “Welcome Home RateBreak,” is available to buyers purchasing a single-family home and earning 80% or less of their area median income (AMI). Rocket estimates the size of this segment at more than 90 million people.

Buyers 501
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Almost 40% of home shoppers hitting pause until after the election: survey

Housing Wire

Homebuyers often adjust their plans for the uncertainty that an election year can bring. With less than 100 days until the 2024 election, a majority of buyers are taking note. That’s according to survey results released Thursday by Veterans United Home Loans, which show that 60% of prospective buyers are taking the election into account. Even more dramatic is that 38% of homebuyers are pausing their search until after Election Day.

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Opportunity unlocked: Mortgage rates drop to 2024 low point

Housing Wire

The downward movement in mortgage rates over the past few months accelerated last week as a cooler-than-expected jobs report and indications of a Federal Reserve rate cut led to a steep drop in loan pricing. At HousingWire ‘s Mortgage Rates Center on Tuesday, the 30-year conventional loan rate averaged 6.8% — a new low point for 2024 that was just below the 6.83% figure to start the year.

Mortgage 505
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Oh snap! Michigan real estate brokers file antitrust suit against NAR

Housing Wire

There are just five days to go until the business practice changes outlined in the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) nationwide commission lawsuit settlement agreement , but the trade association is not out of the lawsuit woods just yet. In a lawsuit filed on Monday by Douglas Hardy, Glenn Champion and Dylan Tent in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan , the plaintiffs claim the requirement that all Realtors and brokers in Michigan be member of NAR, their state Realtor

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The financial markets are freaking out. That should be good for mortgage

Housing Wire

Fears of a recession in the U.S. sent shockwaves through financial markets around the world on Monday. The Dow-Jones dropped 1,000 points by 10:30 a.m. Eastern time, the NASDAQ lost up to 6% of its value and Japanese stocks suffered their biggest crash since 1987, with the Nikkei 225 stock index dropping 12.4%. The turbulence should benefit the U.S. mortgage market , which has already seen big interest rate declines in the past week following a Fed meeting that teased forthcoming cuts to benchma

Mortgage 501
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South Florida, a senior enclave, sees more people ‘unretiring’ due to living costs

Housing Wire

As the cost of living remains elevated, more seniors — even those in “senior strongholds” like South Florida — are choosing to return to work. This pattern among seniors living in and around Fort Lauderdale was recently profiled in an article in the South Florida Sun Sentinel. It falls in line with a broader national trend indicating that nearly 20% of Americans ages 65 and older remain in the workforce, totaling about 10.6 million people.

HOA 496
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Signs point to an extended decline in mortgage rates

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates continued to recede during the past week, with the market anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut next month and the U.S. economy showing signs of weakening. At HousingWire ‘s Mortgage Rates Center , the 30-year conforming loan rate averaged 6.66% on Wednesday. That was 11 basis points (bps) lower than a week ago and 35 bps lower than two weeks ago.

Mortgage 497
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Seller impersonation fraud is on the rise: NDP Analytics

Housing Wire

Seller impersonation fraud is on the rise. A study conducted by NDP Analytics found that 28% of title companies experienced at least one seller impersonation fraud attempt in 2023, and in April 2024 alone, 19% of firms experienced at least one of these attempts. The study, which was released on Monday, is based on a nationwide survey of 783 title companies.

Sellers 499
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Down payment amounts are exploding in these metros

Housing Wire

The typical down payment for U.S. homebuyers soared to a record high of $67,500 in June, up nearly 15% from $58,788 a year earlier, according to a new report from Redfin. The increase in down payments came despite a slowdown in home price growth (4%). Redfin economists attributed it to the quirks of the current market, where higher-priced, turnkey homes in desirable neighborhoods are more likely to sell.

Buyers 492
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Powell signals September rate cut: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’

Housing Wire

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday that “the time has come for policy to adjust,” signaling a cut in the federal funds rate at the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as expected by monetary policy watchers. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” Powell said during a speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Mortgage 493
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Will existing home sales continue to rise?

Housing Wire

How did existing home sales grow with all the recent negative press about demand? We were told lower mortgage rates wouldn’t affect demand positively. However, if you track the forward-looking indicators, it can explain this bounce in demand. First, we have to put context into the bounce: we are working from the lowest levels ever in home sales, so any small, minor move in purchase application data can bounce sales from here.

Inventory 492
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Why new-home sales had such a big beat

Housing Wire

The new home sales report had such a big beat today that many people had to double-check the numbers — and I get it. The estimates were for 623,000 but the sales came in at 739,000. This isn’t my first rodeo with new home sales data and I believe these numbers will be revised lower, but a beat is a beat. There are other sources we can check to get clues on this report ahead of time.

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Are refis back?! Applications hit highest level since August 2022 

Housing Wire

Refinance activity last week hit its highest level since August 2022, when mortgage rates were closer to 5%. But it’s far too early to celebrate. Refinance activity received a major boost last week as mortgage rates declined on the back of expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and a possible recession looms. The dollar volume of refinance applications increased 32.8% for the week ending Aug. 9 from the previous week, according to Fannie Mae ’s Refinance Application-

Mortgage 491
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Mortgage rates are falling as the labor market falters

Housing Wire

Job creation continued to slow in July as unemployment spiked, which economists say is good news for the Federal Reserve and the housing industry. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday shows that total nonfarm payroll rose by 114,000 jobs in July, below analysts’ expectations, and well below the average of monthly gain for the past 12 months of 215,000 jobs.

Marketing 493
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Will the NAR settlement changes slow down home-buying?

Housing Wire

It’s been one week since the NAR settlement changes went into effect. Did the changes affect any of the housing data we track every week? Since the buyer’s commission payout isn’t as transparent as before, I have been anticipating delays in the home-buying process as people adapted to the new rules. The last time we saw this kind of effect was when mortgage lenders had to start incorporating TRID in 2015 — it created a one-month crash in existing home sales because it just took a bit longe

Inventory 485
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Eight states now have more unsold inventory than in 2019. Here’s why.

Housing Wire

Unsold inventory of homes on the market has been climbing in the U.S. for two years, right along with rising mortgage rates. In general, inventory rises with rates because more expensive money slows demand. When demand slows, inventory grows. According to Altos Research , there are 40% more homes on the market at the end of August 2024 than there were last year at this time.

Inventory 482
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Housing market hinges on mortgage rates and supply, not commission structures

Housing Wire

Although there is no doubt that business practice changes outlined in the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) nationwide commission lawsuit settlement agreement are going to impact how real estate industry professionals operate, economists aren’t too sure they’ll have much bearing on the housing market. “I know that surprises people,” Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow, said of the impact of business practice changes on the market.

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Lenders, brokerages weather stock market sell-off, but homebuilders get thumped

Housing Wire

The global stock selloff that began overnight in Asia rolled through U.S. markets on Monday as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3% and 2.6%, respectively. While technology-sector darlings such as Nvidia and Apple got thumped the hardest, the real estate industry also took its fair share of lumps. But analysts believe that the sell-off, paired with a drop in interest rates, could produce mixed results for real estate.

Brokerage 487
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Considering the jobs report, is the Fed risking a recession?

Housing Wire

The Federal Reserve won’t pivot on rates until the labor market breaks and it will keep financial conditions as tight as possible until that happens — this has been my theme since 2022. Friday’s jobs report had one number which got people talking about a possible recession: the 4.3% unemployment rate. Now, historically speaking, that is a low unemployment rate, but it has moved up from the recent lows of 3.5%.

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Utah Realtors boycotted Homie listings over 1.5% buyer broker commission: antitrust lawsuit

Housing Wire

In a lawsuit filed Thursday, real estate startup Homie Technologies claims that home seller consumers were not the only ones harmed by the real estate industry’s allegedly anticompetitive practices. Defendants in the lawsuit, which was filed in U.S. District Court for the Central District of Utah, include the usual cast of antitrust lawsuit characters: the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Anywhere Real Estate , Keller Williams Realty , HomeServices of America , and RE/MAX.

Realtors 482
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Buying with a twist: Reverse mortgages for senior buyers

Housing Wire

In my work, I talk with many seniors. Many are reluctant to leave their homes even when those homes are no longer suitable for their needs. Sometimes, the concern is emotional, but more often than not, it’s financial. What happens if they sell their current home but can’t cover the costs of a new place, especially in a market characterized by record-high home prices?

Buyers 482
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To sue or not to sue: How buyer’s agents should prepare for commission disputes with clients

Housing Wire

As more brokerages and agents contemplate moving away from a cooperative compensation model , many are grappling with some tough questions, the most vexing probably being: What do I do if a seller is only willing to contribute part of the buyer broker’s fees, or none at all? According to Anthony Lamacchia , the broker-owner of Lamacchia Realty , he and his agents have seen disputes over buyer broker fees for years, highlighting the importance of having a signed buyer representation agreement , w

Clients 482
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Will homebuyers jump at cheaper mortgage rates?

Housing Wire

Mortgage rates are dropping fast. Will potential homebuyers jump at newly cheaper payments? Or, will they wait to see if rates drop further before taking action? Mortgage rates are now the lowest they’ve been in over a year. Last year at this time, mortgage rates were rising, eventually peaking at 8% in October 2023. That late year rise in costs really slowed the housing market.

Mortgage 482