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Why purchase application data is below 2008 levels

Housing Wire

In the previous expansion, one of my long-term calls was that the MBA purchase application data will never hit the volume level of 300 until the years 2020-2024. Right on cue, 2020 came and we hit the 300 level. The years 2020-2024 were going to be the time when total home sales could finally reach 6.2 We are up 43% since 2020.

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Housing inventory has never been lower

Housing Wire

During the four week period ending November 28, the number of active listings was a 23% decrease compared to the same time period in 2020 and a 42% drop compared to 2019. The number of new listings was also down compared to 2020, dropping 4%, but it was 12% higher than the number of new listing during the same time period in 2019.

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Housing Market Tracker: Inventory finally rises

Housing Wire

Since 2020, the seasonal bottom for housing inventory has arrived several months later than normal, making it more complicated to track housing inventory data. Here’s a quick rundown of the last week: Active listings rose by 8,546 , and new listing data showed some growth. Again, I am a bit mindful here due to Easter.

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Housing Market Tracker: Spring inventory grows

Housing Wire

Weekly housing inventory Since new listing data was trending at all-time lows in 2023, some feared we wouldn’t see the typical spring inventory increase. After the last few weeks , we can put that fear aside: we are finally getting the seasonal increase in active listing. didn’t go into recession until 2008.

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Are we seeing a mortgage rate lockdown?

Housing Wire

Typically we have a natural set of new listings each year; inventory rises in the spring and summer and then falls in the fall and winter. It wasn’t the rate move that caught my attention — it was the new listing data. As you can see below, that sharp move to 6.25% caused new listing data to stall at first.

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The awesome power of high mortgage rates

Housing Wire

This is clear in the chart below, which shows the year-over-year percent change in the four-week average of new listings. This data, courtesy of Altos, shows that new listings retreat when rates rise and accelerate when rates fall: High rates are bad, too, for the sellers who decided to list their homes.

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Home sales are beginning to stall as buyers hit their limit

Housing Wire

The number of homes for sale fell 28% year over year from 2020, and the typical home sold in just 14 days — a record low and, down from 39 days in June 2020. “In June we entered a new phase of the housing market,” Fairweather said. Finally, new listings fell from a year ago in 15 of the 85 largest metro areas.

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